No Carbon News

(© 2024 No Carbon News)

Discover the Latest News and Initiatives for a Sustainable Future

(© 2024 Energy News Network.)
Subscribe
All News
Minnesota to get major transmission upgrade
Aug 2, 2024

GRID: Minnesota regulators approve key permits for a utility’s $940 million plan to upgrade and boost the capacity of a 465-mile transmission line, allowing it to carry more wind energy from North Dakota and help meet clean energy targets. (Star Tribune)

ALSO:

  • American Electric Power’s commercial power sales spiked 12% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, as utility officials forecast even greater demand as data centers come online. (Utility Dive)
  • FirstEnergy’s top executive calls grid operator PJM’s latest capacity auction a “canary in the coal mine” that suggests new generation isn’t keeping pace with rising power demand. (Utility Dive)

PIPELINES: Minnesota regulators conclude that a small portion of the Summit carbon pipeline in the state’s northwestern corner would have a net benefit on greenhouse gas emissions. (North Dakota Monitor)

TRANSPORTATION: Owners of the nation’s last coal-fired steamship, which runs between Michigan and Wisconsin, examine potential carbon-free ways to power the vessel. (Bridge)

UTILITIES: Michigan’s attorney general says DTE Energy’s $456.4 million electric rate increase, which the utility says prioritizes grid infrastructure, is “excessive and unnecessary.” (Michigan Advance)

CLEAN ENERGY:

  • Illinois could replace its fossil fuel power plants by 2030 with 3,000 MW of storage and nearly 8,000 MW of resources looking to connect to the grid, according to a Natural Resources Defense Council report. (Utility Dive)
  • Ohio U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown cosponsors legislation that would block clean energy production tax credits for “foreign entities of concern,” which he says is intended for Chinese companies. (Toledo Blade)

POLITICS:

  • Sen. Brown has increasingly strayed from fellow Democrats on climate and clean energy as he tries to hold on to his seat in a tough reelection. (E&E News, subscription)
  • Supporters of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz say his climate record, particularly over the past two years, would be beneficial as a potential vice presidential candidate. (E&E News, subscription)

EFFICIENCY: Homebuilders threaten to move their work to Kansas City’s suburbs as city officials consider stricter building codes for energy efficiency. (Kansas City Business Journal, subscription)

COMMENTARY: An Ohio building trades official says U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown has backed key federal legislation that led to large clean energy manufacturing investments in the state. (Columbus Dispatch)

‘Losing your electricity is now a life-threatening event’
Aug 2, 2024

EQUITY: Low-income households are increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, highlighting the urgency of ensuring equitable access to electricity and energy efficiency measures, advocates say. (Associated Press)

ALSO: Massachusetts awards $53 million — with plans for additional funding — to allow affordable housing operators to execute energy efficiency retrofits. (Energy News Network)

GRID:

HYDROGEN:

  • The upcoming election, pending guidance on a key tax credit, and the implications of a recent Supreme Court ruling fuel uncertainty in the hydrogen industry. (E&E News)
  • Federal energy officials agree to provide $30 million to the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub for its first slate of work across Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia; the hub could receive up to $925 million. (RTO Insider, subscription)
  • Some environmental advocates say pay-to-enter hydrogen networking events help backers of the Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub network get non-public facetime between involved businesses and officials. (WHYY)

CLIMATE:

OIL & GAS:

  • Chevron says California’s regulatory regime pushed it to relocate its headquarters from the San Francisco Bay Area to Houston later this year. (New York Times)  
  • Environmental groups are hopeful that Vice President Kamala Harris will push the federal government to investigate oil company misinformation on climate change if she is elected president. (The Guardian)
  • Republicans plan to use the budget reconciliation process to accelerate fossil fuel leases, among other measures, if they regain control of the federal government in November. (E&E News, subscription)

ELECTRIC VEHICLES: A U.S. Senate committee this week discussed ways to help the domestic electric vehicle industry be more competitive globally. (States Newsroom)

NUCLEAR: A company developing a nuclear fusion prototype at a Tennessee nuclear plant raises capital from enthusiastic investors who see potential for an alternative to creating nuclear power from fission. (Knoxville News Sentinel)

COMMENTARY: A utility-funded California program says smart panel technology can help homeowners convert to electric appliances without expensive upgrades. (CalNEXT, sponsored)

Massachusetts awards $53 million to help affordable housing operators cut emissions and make homes healthier
Aug 2, 2024

Massachusetts has awarded $53 million — and announced plans for additional funding — to allow affordable housing operators to execute energy efficiency retrofits that are expected to reduce carbon emissions, cut energy bills, and create healthier, more comfortable homes for residents.

The state in late July announced the second round of awards in the Affordable Housing Decarbonization Grant Program, allocating $26.1 million to five organizations to improve insulation, tighten building envelopes, and switch to heat pump heating and cooling systems. These grants come seven months after an initial round of $27.4 million was awarded to seven affordable housing operators statewide.

“This has been a really critical funding stream for moving forward critical energy projects at some of our family public housing sites,” said Joel Wool, deputy administrator for sustainability and capital transformation at the Boston Housing Authority, which received grants in both rounds.

Along with the most recent round of awards, the state also announced it would invest another $40 million into the program in anticipation of giving out another set of grants in the fall.

The program was designed to address two major policy goals: decarbonization and addressing the state’s affordable housing crisis.

Massachusetts has set the ambitious goal of going carbon-neutral by 2050. Buildings — which contribute 35% of the state’s carbon emissions — are a particularly important sector to target for decarbonization. This means finding ways to retrofit the state’s existing housing stock, much of which is drafty, heated by fossil fuels, and decades — or even centuries — old.

At the same time, Massachusetts is experiencing an acute housing crisis. State officials estimate at least 200,000 new homes are needed to accommodate demand by 2030. Finding an affordable home is even more challenging for lower-income residents faced with soaring rents and home prices — and often, high energy bills.

“We have such a housing crisis in Massachusetts that we want to do anything we can to create more housing, but also to make the housing we have now a better place to live,” said state Energy Department Commissioner Elizabeth Mahony. “These are investments in our infrastructure.”

Nonprofit Worcester Common Ground received an $820,000 grant in the latest round that it will use to complete deep energy retrofits on four buildings that were last updated some 30 years ago. The money will allow the renovations to include air sealing, more energy-efficient windows, and extra insulation. The grant will also allow the buildings to go fully electric, including with air source heat pumps that will provide lower-cost, more comfortable heating and cooling.

“Even though it’s a higher upfront cost, the hope is that maybe it reduces expenses going forward,” said Timothy Gilbert, project manager for Worcester Common Ground. “It might sound a little cheesy but we really do care about the well-being of the folks who live in our houses.”

In most cases, the grant money is being combined with other funding to allow more complete — and even downright ambitious — upgrades. In Worcester, other funding sources will pay for rooftop solar panels that will make the newly energy-efficient buildings even more cost-effective and environmentally friendly. The Boston Housing Authority is using its latest $5.8 million award as part of a larger project that aims to completely decarbonize the Franklin Fields housing development in the Dorchester neighborhood by combining energy efficiency upgrades and Boston’s first networked geothermal system.

In the Boston neighborhood of Roxbury, the Madison Park Development Corporation is receiving $13.5 million from the Affordable Housing Decarbonization Grant Program to do work at its 331-unit Orchard Gardens development. But it is also seeking out other sources to meet the $20 million expected cost of the planned sustainability upgrades.

“It’s a big property and the heart of one of Boston’s oldest, most diverse, most underserved neighborhoods,” said Oren Richkin, senior project manager for the organization. “This grant money is pivotal for this project.”

Supporters of the program are expecting it to strengthen the state’s ability to respond to climate change in the future as well. Switching affordable housing units from fossil fuel heating to heat pump heating and cooling will allow residents to stay comfortable and safe in their own homes during increasingly hot summers, Wool said.

The funding could also help nudge the ideas of deep energy retrofits and electrification more into the mainstream, Mahony said.

“We are essentially socializing these programs — the more we do it, the more people will get used to the ideas,” she said.

As the recipients of the first round of grants begin their projects, the state is starting to learn how to operate the program more effectively. The state has already, for example, started providing some technical assistance to organizations interested in applying for future rounds of funding. Continued conversations with building owners and nonprofits will be essential to creating an even stronger program moving forward, Mahony said.

“We’re setting ourselves up for success in the future,” she said.

Georgia has a coal ash disposal problem
Aug 1, 2024

COAL ASH: Georgia Power faces big questions about its plan to clean up coal ash at power plants across the state — including whether the U.S. EPA will go along after it nixed a similar scheme in Alabama. (Grist/WABE)

ALSO: North Carolina residents ask the U.S. EPA to investigate the extent of coal ash contamination in a town after extracting samples with “elevated radioactivity.” (WCNC)

TRANSITION: West Virginia regulators consider renewing an air permit for a coal-fired power plant slated for conversion to a hydrogen-powered graphite production facility after its co-owner is sued for making false statements to receive funding. (Charleston Gazette-Mail)

UTILITIES:

  • A Dominion Energy subsidiary missed a 2022 energy savings target in Virginia, which environmentalists argue means it can’t receive a $6 million performance bonus and casts doubt on the utility’s application to build new natural gas-fired power plant units. (Utility Dive)
  • A Florida city council is set to vote today on whether to investigate breaking with Duke Energy to create its own energy utility. (Spectrum News)

STORAGE: Chattanooga, Tennessee’s electric utility plans to add 36 MW of battery storage at two decommissioned substations as part of a plan to save money and add a total 150 MW of capacity to boost grid reliability. (Chattanooga Times Free Press)

WIND: A company’s unsolicited request for an offshore wind lease in the Gulf of Mexico is reviving hope around the sector after federal officials previously canceled a lease auction later this year for “lack of competitive interest.” (Utility Dive)

GRID:

OIL & GAS:

CLIMATE:

HYDROGEN: The U.S. Energy Department issues $30 million toward the development of a hydrogen hub in West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. (WV News)

SOLAR: A Korean energy company sells a 260 MW solar project in Texas to another Korean company. (Renewables Now)

POLITICS: West Virginia U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin’s support of a sweeping climate law has benefited the state with new manufacturing and energy projects, but is still unpopular with voters and may have hastened the end of his time in Congress. (E&E News)

COMMENTARY: A company’s proposal to mine mineral sands near the Okefenokee Swamp could disrupt the swamp’s status as a carbon sink, writes a conservationist. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

Inflation Reduction Act grant gives landfill solar a boost in Ohio
Aug 1, 2024

Ohio clean energy projects under an Inflation Reduction Act grant announced last month show how solar sited on closed landfills can reduce greenhouse gases, improve resilience and provide funding for other environmental goals.

Part of the $129.4 million grant from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will add 28 megawatts of solar generation to a county central services facility and four former landfill sites in Cleveland and Cuyahoga County. A bigger chunk of the funding will bring 35 MW of solar and 10 MW of battery storage to a brownfield site in Painesville in Lake County, which will let the city close a coal-fired peaker plant that dates back to 1908.

Representatives of the Cleveland, Painesville and Cuyahoga County governments, along with the EPA and others, met July 26 at Cuyahoga County’s 4 MW solar array in Brooklyn, Ohio, to discuss the grant and the work. Funding from the EPA grant will more than double the generation capacity of that landfill solar site, which has been in operation since 2018.

“In Northeast Ohio we’re going to see warmer, wetter, wilder weather in this region. And we have to do our part to address climate change,” said Mike Foley, director of sustainability for Cuyahoga County.

Funded projects under the grant are expected to eliminate the equivalent of 1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide over a 25-year period, with the largest cuts coming from deploying the solar projects in Cuyahoga County, Cleveland and Painesville, according to Valerie Katz, deputy director of sustainability for Cuyahoga County.

The biggest chunk of grant money will go to Painesville, which is in Lake County east of Cleveland. But the 28 MW of solar generation to be built in Cuyahoga County will have a big impact.

“This will triple our solar capacity in Cuyahoga County in the next five years,” Katz said.

The landfill and brownfield projects funded by the grant will do more than produce electricity. By avoiding pollution from fossil fuels, they’ll provide health and environmental benefits. They’ll also produce revenue.

Some of the revenue from the brownfield solar site in Painesville will fund natural habitat for pollinators, birds and other wildlife elsewhere on that site. The city plans to work with the West Creek Conservancy for that and other projects, including building public trails and creating access for fishing.

Cuyahoga County also plans to use revenue from its sites to deploy more solar, Katz said. The added solar, in turn, can help develop microgrids to boost resiliency.

Making landfill solar work

While closed landfills provide plenty of open space, they also are often capped by membranes made from clay or other materials that cannot be damaged without risking environmental harm.

Solar arrays at these sites are feasible thanks to ballast systems, which have been fairly common for such uses for more than a decade. Huge concrete blocks anchor the solar array’s racks and panels. The blocks, or ballasts, support the array and protect it from wind.

“They’re not going through the cap, which works out great for us,” said Jarnal Singh, an environmental supervisor with Ohio EPA’s Twinsburg office in its division of materials and waste management.

Without holes in the cap, the solar array doesn’t provide a pathway for methane or other gases to escape from the landfill. Leaving the cap intact also avoids creating a pathway for water to get in and percolate through the waste. That liquid, called leachate, could pollute groundwater if it’s not collected and treated properly.

Ohio has 141 landfill sites that have been subject to the state’s post-closure care requirements, according to Anthony Chenault, the Ohio EPA’s media coordinator for its Central, Northeast and Southeast districts. The agency has approved four landfills for solar development so far and has had informal discussions about several more sites.

But other practical considerations and site-specific features control whether any particular landfill is suitable for solar development.

“Some factors that could determine viability of a solar installation include proximity to existing power lines, size of the landfill, condition of the landfill cover, ownership (public vs private), and accessibility for equipment and maintenance,” Chenault said via email.

A few years should have passed since a landfill was closed and capped, so some settlement and off-gassing has already taken place, said Scott Ameduri, president of Enerlogics Networks, which was the primary developer for the Cuyahoga County solar site. There also must be a financially sound owner willing to accept responsibility for the waste at the site, he said.

Just as importantly, the electricity will need somewhere to go and a way to get there.

“In Brooklyn, for example, we were fortunate that Cleveland Public Power is a municipal utility,” Ameduri said. Municipal utilities are generally more flexible about making arrangements to take and distribute power than investor-owned utilities, he noted. Community solar legislation, such as House Bill 197, could help change things on that front, he added.

Another option is to have a large off-taker for the electricity adjacent to or near the landfill. The 7 MW of new grant-funded solar power to be built on a landfill south of the IX Center in Cuyahoga County can go to the expo center or the nearby Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, Ameduri said. The general area is also under consideration for one of the Cuyahoga County utility’s microgrids.

Otherwise, a landfill solar project putting electricity onto the grid may require a go-ahead from the regional grid operator, which is PJM for Ohio. The process takes roughly three to five years and adds extra costs. “I’d rather spread that over a 100-MW project than I would for a smaller brownfield site,” Ameduri said.

For now, Cleveland, Painesville and Cuyahoga County are celebrating the EPA grant award.

“This investment will allow us right here in Cleveland to turn brownfields into bright fields,” said Mayor Justin Bibb.

‘Every 0.1C’ of overshoot above 1.5C increases risk of crossing tipping points
Aug 1, 2024

Every increment of global warming above 1.5C increases the risk of crossing key tipping points in the Earth system – even if the overshoot is only temporary, says new research.

It is well established that if global temperatures exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, there is a higher risk that tipping points will be crossed.

The new study, published in Nature Communications, investigates the risk of crossing four interconnected tipping points under different “policy-relevant” future emissions scenarios.

The authors investigate the risk of tipping where warming temporarily overshoots 1.5C, but global temperatures are then brought back down using negative emissions technologies. They find that the longer the 1.5C threshold is breached, and the higher the peak temperature, the greater the risk of crossing tipping points.

The most pessimistic scenario in the study sees global warming hit 3.3C by the end of the century – in line with the climate policies of 2020 – before dropping back below 1.5C over 2100-2300. Under this pathway, there is a 45% chance of crossing tipping points by 2300, the authors say.

The authors also warn that if global temperatures rise above 2C, the additional risk of tipping for every extra increment of warming “strongly accelerates”.

For temperatures between 1.5C and 2C, the risk increases by 1-1.5% for every 0.1C increase in overshoot temperature. However, for temperatures above 2.5C, tipping risk increases to 3% per 0.1C of overshoot.

The research “underlines the need for urgent emission cuts now that do not assume substantial carbon dioxide removal later”, a scientist not involved in the study tells Carbon Brief.

Overshoot scenarios

Scientists have warned for decades that as the planet warms, there is an increasing risk that Earth systems will cross “tipping points” – critical thresholds that, if exceeded, could push a system into an entirely new state.

For example, if climate change and human-driven deforestation push the Amazon rainforest past a critical threshold, large parts of the forest could experience “dieback”. This would cause entire sections of lush rainforest to eventually shift to dry savannah.

(See Carbon Brief’s explainer on the nine tipping points that could be crossed as a result of climate change.)

The planet has already warmed by 1.3C above pre-industrial levels, and a recent study warned that five tipping elements – including the collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet – are already within reach.

That study emphasised the importance of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement. It finds that warming of 1.5C would render four climate tipping elements “likely” and a further six “possible”. Meanwhile, 13 tipping elements will be either “likely” or “possible” if the planet warms by 2.6C, as expected under current climate policies.

Many of the potential pathways to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C by 2100 see the planet initially “overshoot” the threshold before negative emissions methods are used to bring temperatures back down.

The new paper investigates 10 future warming scenarios which run to the year 2300. The authors use the PROVIDE v1.2 emission pathways, which they describe as “an extended version of the illustrative pathways identified” used in the recent sixth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The original scenarios run over 2015-2300, but the authors carried them forward for another 50,000 years by following the temperature trajectory set over 2290-2300. All scenarios stabilise at 1.5C, 1C or pre-industrial temperatures. However, many include overshoots, with peak temperatures ranging from 1.57C to 3.30C.

These scenarios show a range of options for how global temperatures change under these 10 scenarios in the “medium term” – until the year 2300 – as well as in the “long term”, which runs 50,000 years into the future to see how the planet eventually stabilises.

Scenarios that reach net-zero or negative emissions by 2100 and maintain them thereafter are classified as “NZGHG emission scenarios”. The table below gives more detail on each scenario.

Table showing the 10 scenarios used in this study. Source: Möller et al (2024).

There is quite a range between the 10 pathways.

At the high end, the “CurPol-OS-1.5C” scenario sees a continuation of the global climate policies implemented in 2020 until the year 2100, with warming peaking at 3.3C. It then sees a decline in global temperature until reaching a stabilisation of 1.5C by the year 2300.

At the low end, “Neg-OS-0C” scenario initially overshoots 1.5C to 1.67C, but then returns warming to 1.5C by 2100 using “heavy carbon dioxide removal deployment”. It also then sees average global temperatures drop to pre-industrial levels by the year 2300.

In the middle, the Ref-1p5 scenario is the only one that does not include an overshoot, instead stabilising quickly at 1.5C.

The chart below shows greenhouse gas emissions (top) and corresponding global temperature changes (bottom) associated with each scenario, identified by the different-coloured lines. The bottom chart illustrates the range in how quickly the pathways return to 1.5C or below.

Greenhouse gas emissions (top) and corresponding global temperature changes (bottom) associated with each scenario are shown in the graphics below. The table below gives more detail on each scenario. Source: Möller et al (2024).

Dr David McKay is a research impact fellow at the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who has published extensively on climate tipping points, but was not involved in this study.

He also notes that some of the scenarios shown in this study “may not be possible”, because there is debate about whether or not “the substantial carbon dioxide removal needed for large overshoots is feasible”.

Cascades

Many Earth systems are interlinked, so crossing one tipping point can increase the likelihood of crossing others. This is often described as a “domino effect” or “tipping cascade”.

The study focuses on four interconnected tipping points – collapse of the Greenland ice sheet and west Antarctic ice sheet, shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and dieback of the Amazon rainforest.

Annika Högner is a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and co-lead author on the study. She tells Carbon Brief these four tipping points were chosen because they “play a significant role in the functioning of the Earth system” and “their tipping would have severe global impacts”.

The graphic below shows how the tipping points interact with each other. A “+” symbol indicates that crossing one tipping point can destabilise another. For example, a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet makes the AMOC more likely to shut down, as a result of the sudden influx of freshwater into the north Atlantic Ocean. A “±” symbol indicates that the relationship between two tipping points is uncertain.

A “-” symbol indicates that crossing one tipping point stabilises another. Högner tells Carbon Brief that the interaction between the Greenland ice sheet and AMOC is the only stabilising interaction in this study. She explains that if the AMOC were to cross a tipping point, “we [would] expect to see strong cooling in the northern hemisphere”, which will contribute to stabilising the Greenland ice sheet.

Interactions between the Greenland ice sheet collapse, west Antarctic ice sheet collapse, AMOC shutdown and Amazon dieback. A “+” indicates that crossing one tipping point destabilises another, “-” indicates that crossing one tipping point stabilises another and “±” indicates that the relationship between two tipping points is uncertain. Source: Möller et al (2024).

Earth system models “often don’t resolve tipping processes very well”, making them less suited to modelling full tipping cascades, Högner tells Carbon Brief.

Instead, she explains that the authors developed a “conceptual model”. This model does not attempt to simulate the entire Earth system, but instead just models the likelihood of tipping at different temperatures, based on existing knowledge about tipping elements from other studies.

The model takes temperature trajectories as an input and gives the state of the tipping elements after a specified time – that is, whether or not the element has tipped – as an output.

Importantly, these models include “hysteresis” – a feature of tipping systems, in which a system that has moved to a different state does not easily move back to the original state even if temperatures are reduced again.

Tipping risk

The authors use their conceptual model to calculate “tipping risk” under the 10 future warming scenarios. Högner tells Carbon Brief that tipping risk “refers to the model of all four interacting tipping elements analysed in the study”. For example, a 50% tipping risk means there is a 50% chance that at least one of the four climate elements will tip.

The top row of the graphic below shows the risk of tipping in the year 2300 (left) and in 50,000 years from now (right). Bars placed higher up indicate a greater likelihood of tipping. The dot shows the average value for each data point, while the bars show the 10-90% range.

The text on the right hand side gives likelihood levels in the calibrated language used by the IPCC: very likely means a likelihood of 90-100%, likely is 66-100%, about as likely as not is 33-66%; unlikely is 0-33%; and very unlikely is 0-10%.

The middle row shows the peak temperature under each scenario (left) and stabilisation temperature (right). The bottom row shows how long temperatures overshoot before stabilising in each scenario.

The risk of tipping by 2300 under different scenarios, at different temperatures (left), where each colour represents one scenario. The percentage change in tipping risk for every additional 0.1C of overshoot (right), for different peak global temperatures, for the Amazon (cross), AMOC (plus), West Antarctic ice sheet (black dot) Greenland Ice sheet (square) and overall (yellow dot). Source: Möller et al (2024).

The longer the 1.5C threshold is breached for, and the higher the peak temperature is, the greater the risk of crossing tipping points by the year 2300, the study shows.

The authors find the greatest risk of crossing tipping points in the CurPol-OS-1.5C scenario (red), which follows the climate policies of 2020 until the year 2100 and then reaches 1.5C by 2300, as this scenario has the greatest overshoot temperature and duration.

Under this scenario, there is a 45% tipping risk by 2300 and a 76% chance in 50,000 years, according to the paper.

The five pathways that do not return warming to 1.5C by the year 2100 have the greatest medium-term risks, and those with less than 0.1C overshoot have the lowest medium-term risks.

In the long-term – looking to the next 50,000 years – the authors find that stabilisation temperature is “one of the decisive variables for tipping risks”. They find that even in the Ref1p5 scenario – which sees global temperatures stabilise at 1.5C without any overshoot – there is a 50% risk of the system tipping over the next 50,000 years.

The results “illustrate that a global mean temperature increase of 1.5C is not ‘safe’ in terms of planetary stability, but must be seen as an upper limit”, the study warns.

Högner tells Carbon Brief that the paper “underlines the importance of adhering to the Paris Agreement temperature goal”.

Tessa Möller – a researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and co-lead author on the paper – tells Carbon Brief that “we have a wide portfolio of technologies available” to limit warming to 1.5C, and just need to “implement” them.

However, she also highlights the “large credibility gap” between pledges from individual countries and the policies they have actually implemented. She tells Carbon Brief that not only do we need “stronger pledges”, but it is also essential that countries follow through on them.

Long-term climate

The authors also explore the risk of each individual tipping point being crossed in different scenarios.

The plot below shows the tipping risk by 2300 under different scenarios, at different temperatures, on the left. Each colour represents one scenario. Dots positioned further to the right indicate a greater peak temperature and dots positioned higher up indicate a greater tipping risk.

The plot on the right shows the percentage change in tipping risk for every additional 0.1C of overshoot, for different peak global temperatures, for the Amazon (cross), AMOC (plus), West Antarctic ice sheet (black dot) Greenland Ice sheet (square) and overall (yellow dot).

The risk of tipping by 2300 under different scenarios, at different temperatures (left), where each colour represents one scenario. The percentage change in tipping risk for every additional 0.1C of overshoot (right), for different peak global temperatures, for the Amazon (cross), AMOC (plus), West Antarctic ice sheet (black dot) Greenland Ice sheet (square) and overall (yellow dot). Source: Möller et al (2024).

The authors find that AMOC collapse and Amazon dieback would likely be the first components to tip. This could be in the next 15-300 years and 50-200 years, respectively, depending on the scenario, they find.

Meanwhile, the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets have tipping timescales of 1,000-15,000 years and 500-13,000 years, respectively.

However, they note that as temperatures increase, the relative risk of each element tipping changes. The graph shows that while AMOC is the main driver of tipping risk at lower temperatures, the Amazon becomes the main driver once global temperatures exceed 2C.

Finally, they find that as global temperatures rise, the risk of tipping accelerates. Overall, tipping risk increases by 1-1.5% per 0.1C increase in overshoot temperature, for temperatures below 2C, according to the study. However, above 2.5C, tipping risk increases to 3% per 0.1C increase overshoot.

McKay notes that there are some limitations in the study. For example, he notes that the paper “has to rely on tipping threshold and timescale estimates with often wide ranges and sometimes low confidence, while tipping interaction estimates are based on dated expert judgement”.

However, he adds:

“This work makes it clear that every fraction of warming increases the chance of tipping points, even if global temperature subsequently falls, and underlines the need for urgent emission cuts now that do not assume substantial carbon dioxide removal later.”

Anti-fracking advocates see work pay off in southeastern Ohio
Jul 31, 2024

OIL & GAS: Residents say their longtime advocacy work is paying off as five of seven fracking waste injection wells in southeastern Ohio have now been suspended after state officials said they pose a threat to the public and environment. (Ohio Capital Journal)

ALSO: A North Dakota commission will take another week to 10 days to pick the state’s next top oil and gas regulator to replace a former longtime department head. (North Dakota Monitor)

SOLAR:

  • A Michigan startup pursuing space-based solar power satellites that would beam renewable energy back to facilities on Earth hopes to put a pilot power plant in operation by 2027. (MLive)
  • A growing number of Illinois farmers are pursuing agrivoltaics and using compatible farmland for solar power, which presents an opportunity for crucial additional income. (Chicago Tribune)

CLIMATE:

  • Despite missing out on the latest round of federal climate grants, Indiana officials still plan to proceed with finalizing a comprehensive plan for cutting greenhouse gas emissions. (Indiana Public Radio)
  • Federal officials estimate Illinois’ $430 million allocation from the climate program will cut 57 million tons of emissions by 2050, the equivalent of taking more than 13.5 million off the road. (WBEZ)

GRID: North Dakota regulators will hold a conference this week on the potential power grid implications of the anticipated spike in data centers. (North Dakota Monitor)

NUCLEAR: South Dakota regulators push back on Xcel Energy’s request for South Dakota ratepayers to contribute to annual payments to a tribe located near a Minnesota power plant. (SDPB)

BIOFUELS: An Iowa ethanol company with hundreds of member producers across the country sues its marketing partner for $7 million, alleging errors in attempting to sell fuel-grade ethanol. (Iowa Capital Dispatch)

ELECTRIC VEHICLES: The police department in Green Bay, Wisconsin, launches an electric vehicle pilot program that has deployed two EVs to ticket speeding vehicles and enforce parking violations. (Press-Gazette)

COAL: A federal judge grants Ameren Missouri’s request for a private mediator to potentially resolve the utility’s 13-year legal dispute with the U.S. government over Clean Air Act violations involving a coal plant near St. Louis. (Bloomberg Law, subscription)

COMMENTARY: Federal clean energy policies are helping Ohio become a leading manufacturing hub for solar and storage, the head of a national solar advocacy group writes. (Cleveland.com)

Navajo Nation threatens to block uranium-hauling trucks in Arizona
Jul 31, 2024

URANIUM: The Navajo Nation plans to block trucks carrying uranium ore from a Grand Canyon-area mine across tribal land to a Utah processing center, saying the shipments expose people to a substance “that has devastated our community.” (Associated Press, news release)

SOLAR:

CLIMATE: Oregon regulators seek public input on proposed climate regulations aimed at slashing greenhouse gas emissions that were overhauled after being derailed by a fossil fuel industry lawsuit. (Oregon Capital Chronicle)

POLITICS: Left-leaning climate advocacy groups endorse Kamala Harris for president based on her record as a U.S. senator from California. (Heated)

OIL & GAS:

TRANSMISSION:

GRID: California’s grid operator finds its Western Energy Imbalance Market yielded participants $365 million in benefits from April to June this year. (RTO Insider, subscription)

WIND: A Wyoming startup looks to raise nearly $13 million to develop and market its horizontal low-to-the-ground wind energy loops, saying they are cheaper and more environmentally friendly than conventional turbines. (Cowboy State Daily)

UTILITIES: Idaho regulators seek public input on Rocky Mountain Power’s proposed wildfire hazard mitigation plan. (Idaho Capital Sun)

Redo of Oregon program to cap greenhouse gas pollution ready for public review
Jul 31, 2024

Oregon’s plan to regulate fossil fuel companies and reduce greenhouse gases is ready for public comment after being derailed seven months ago by a lawsuit brought by natural gas companies.

Draft regulations for the state’s redo of the 2021 Climate Protection Program were published Tuesday by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality. The agency gave the public until Friday, Aug. 30 to comment on them. The state’s Environmental Quality Commission, which oversees rulemaking for DEQ, is expected to vote on final rules by the end of the year, once again putting the state’s landmark climate change laws into action.

Little has changed from the original program standards, which were passed three years ago by the commission. The targets for reducing greenhouse gas pollution would remain the same. Under the proposed rules, Oregon would attempt to reach a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas pollution by 2035 and a 90% reduction by 2050 to confront the growing threat of climate change.

Fossil fuel companies would have to gradually decarbonize their energy supply, largely by shifting away from petroleum and natural gas and instead incorporating renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and so-called biofuels – made from captured gas and decomposing matter – into their energy offerings.

Natural gas is almost entirely methane gas, among the most potent climate-warming greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere. One-third of global warming is due to human-caused emissions of methane, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Under the newly proposed rules, some heavy energy users in the state would need to meet emissions reduction targets and companies would need to show compliance with the program every two years, as opposed to every three years in the original plan.

“We did build off of the work that we already did in the prior Climate Protection Program,” Nicole Singh, senior climate change policy advisor for DEQ, told the Capital Chronicle on Tuesday. “We didn’t throw that out the window. We’re using that information to help inform this.”

To give companies a little flexibility, they would be able meet some pollution reduction targets by purchasing credits sold by the state. Money from those credits are invested in projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Expanding the program

Besides the three-year compliance schedule, the largest change to the newly proposed rules is who has to follow them.

The state, for the first time, would regulate the emissions of companies that are heavy natural gas users, not just the suppliers of their gas. These include some cement, fertilizer and gypsum producers. Gypsum is in plaster, drywall and some cement. Companies operating in Oregon, including cement maker Ash Grove and Georgia Pacific, which works with gypsum, would need to meet new emissions standards, Singh said.

The agency included other changes in the investment portion of the Climate Protection Program. This section covers what is ostensibly Oregon’s carbon crediting market, where polluters can offset some of their greenhouse gas emissions by investing in projects that reduce overall emissions. One credit would be equal to one metric ton of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, and companies could buy them for $129 per credit. This market, which would have begun operating this year, was previously projected to bring in $150 million a year for community decarbonization and renewable energy projects, according to the Portland-based nonprofit Seeding Justice, which had previously been tasked with overseeing the investments.

Credit recipients, largely nonprofits working on community-based projects, could use the grants to help people and businesses buy and install solar panels and heat pumps, purchase electric vehicles and chargers and help weatherize homes and buildings.

Under the proposed rules, Oregon’s nine federally recognized tribes would play a bigger role in determining grants and would receive more funding, according to Singh. It’s unclear yet what role Seeding Justice could play in distributing grants in the future, she said, because such details would follow final rulemaking.

The state would also take a fraction of the funding – about 4.5% – to pay for its oversight of the grants and to undertake internal and external auditing to ensure money is being spent appropriately and that projects are, in fact, reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions required.

Under the new rules, companies could offset 15% of their emissions through the purchase of these credits during the first two years of the Climate Protection Program and 20% during each two-year compliance period thereafter. Previously, companies could only offset 10% of their emissions through the credits in the first two years.

DEQ also proposes to work more closely with the Oregon Public Utilities Commission to understand how the Climate Protection Program will affect natural gas rates for Oregonians and to ensure companies aren’t passing all the costs of decarbonization on to their customers.

Lawsuit triggers redo

The Climate Protection Program was approved in 2021 by the Environmental Quality Commission after more than a year of meetings, presentations from the environmental quality department and public comment.

But in December, Oregon Court of Appeals judges agreed with lawyers representing NW Natural, Avista Corporation and Cascade Natural Gas Corporation, who argued that in the process of imposing state regulations to cap and reduce emissions, the commission failed to submit required disclosures to the companies and to other entities that hold federal industrial air pollution permits. The department was required to issue a written statement about why the state was adopting emission limits that exceeded federal rules, disclose a list of alternatives that were considered and explain why they were not adopted.

The judges ruled the program invalid on those technicalities.

Rather than appealing the decision to the Oregon Supreme Court, which would likely not hear the case until mid-2025, state environmental regulators announced in January that they would start over.

Agrivoltaics scale up with new research project
Jul 31, 2024

All over the country, small and niche farming operations have proved solar panels and agriculture can not only work well together, but can actually be mutually beneficial.

In Maine, low-growing blueberries have had some success being planted around panels. In Vermont, fussy saffron thrives around an array. And there are plenty of farms where sheep and other small livestock graze around solar panels, enjoying the shade while keeping vegetation under control.

Now, an Ohio research project aims to find out how farming/solar partnerships — also known as agrivoltaics — can succeed on a much bigger scale, the Energy News Network reports.

At the 1,900-acre Madison Fields project, Ohio State University researchers planted popular crops grown in huge numbers across the Midwest — mainly alfalfa, hay, and other forage crops — among an 180 MW solar array. Researchers found these crops grew well among solar panels in an earlier, smaller pilot, but it’s unclear how feasible it is to grow them on a large scale.

“You hear a lot about produce and specialty crops,” explained Sarah Moser, the director of farm operations and agrivoltaics at Shell subsidiary Savion, which built the solar array. But raising them is “hard to do on 1,000 acres.”

Another part of the project focuses on farm equipment, including whether tractors and other wide equipment can fit between rows of solar panels. And after crops are harvested, the farm will bring in sheep to help trim back any extra vegetation. Researchers will keep an eye on the sheep’s health, and take note of what other care they’d need to live among solar panels.

It’s all in an attempt to alleviate fears in Ohio and beyond that solar farms are using up valuable agricultural land — though as one agricultural conservation group has found, urban sprawl is a much bigger threat.

Read more about the Madison Fields project at the Energy News Network.

More clean energy news

💧 Hydrogen debate continues: As the federal government starts sending funding to seven hydrogen hubs, researchers and advocates warn the industry could worsen greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution if it uses non-renewable power to make the fuel. (Grist/Public Health Watch)

☎️ Unexpected IRA lifeline: Former President Trump promises to halt Inflation Reduction Act spending if he’s elected, but legal and practical challenges, as well as Republican governors and lawmakers benefitting from the law, could hinder his efforts. (Politico)

🛢️ ‘Sacrifice zone’: A surge in oil and gas production, largely driven by fracking, has turned the U.S. into the world’s top producer — and fuels concern that the Gulf Coast is becoming a “sacrifice zone for the oil and gas industry.” (The Guardian)

💲 Tax credit firsts: A set of projects across Washington, D.C., and California mark the first time a company sold its Inflation Reduction Act solar tax credits to another company, a key tool to help encourage solar in new construction. (Canary Media)

💸 Paying for nothing: A condition of free trade agreements often lets fossil fuel companies pursue and secure big payouts if governments cancel their projects. (Inside Climate News)

🏛️ Federal proving ground: The U.S. General Services Administration, which runs the nation’s federal buildings, is using Inflation Reduction Act funding to decarbonize its infrastructure and derisk new technologies that can help other buildings cut their emissions. (Canary Media)

⚖️ Emissions rule fight continues: Republican state attorneys general ask the Supreme Court to temporarily block the U.S. EPA’s power plant emissions rule after a federal appeals court declined to do so. (CNN)

✅ Duality of the deal: Climate advocates hope Vice President Kamala Harris rekindles her support for the Green New Deal as she runs for president — as do Republicans, who hope to paint Harris as an “avowed radical.” (New York Times)

🔋 Batteries’ recycling edge: Researchers argue that the recyclability of electric vehicle battery minerals give them an environmental advantage over fossil fuels, despite the massive impact of mining for lithium and other components. (Canary Media)

🌬️ Winds of change: Wind development continues to divide residents in Midwest states, as misinformation leads to restrictive local regulations and local economic benefits can take years to materialize. (Associated Press)

>