The Problem

Global Warming

Remaining carbon Budget as of 22 Aug 2024

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Data:  Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (mcc-berlin.net)

Remaining Carbon Budget

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), evaluates scientific data related to climate change, including estimates of the remaining CO2 emissions budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C / 2°C. This data, last updated in the summer of 2021, underlies the MCC Carbon Clock.

IPCC bases the carbon budget on the near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions and temperature rise, considering the lag between CO2 concentration and its temperature impact. With annual emissions from fossil fuels, industrial processes, and land-use change estimated at 42.2 gigatonnes (1,337 tonnes per second), the 1.5°C / 2°C budgets are expected to be exhausted in approximately 3 and 21 years from January 2026, respectively.

Realtime countdown of the remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions budget until global warming reaches a maximum of 1.5°C / 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), evaluates scientific data related to climate change including estimates of the remaining amount of CO2 that can be released into the atmosphere to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C / 2°C.  This data was last updated in summer 2021, and is the basis of the MCC Carbon Clock.

IPCC bases the concept of a carbon budget on a nearly linear relationship between the cumulative emissions and the temperature rise.  There is, however, a lag between the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere and their impact on temperature to be taken into account.  With the starting point of annual emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels, industrial processes and land-use change estimated to be 42.2 gigatonnes per year [or 1,337 tonnes per second], the 1.5°C / 2°C budgets would be expected to be exhausted in approximately 5 and 23 years from August 2024, respectively.

Am I also contributing?

Are we thinking about the emission of greenhouse gasses such as methane and carbon when we do day to day activities like: driving a car, using energy to cook or heating our houses? Probably not. But by doing this we are making our small but constant contribution to the problem of Global Warming. We see from worsening weather disasters around the world that this returns as a boomerang back to our houses and families.

>80%

of all natural disasters were related to climate change

24.29%

USA share of global world cumulative CO₂ emission

100 million

people can be pushed into poverty by 2030 because of climate change impact

We agree this is really happening!

The overall trend in global average temperature indicates that warming is occurring in an increasing number of regions. Future Earth warming depends on our greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.

At present, approximately 11 billion metric tons of carbon are released into the atmosphere each year. As a result, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is on the rise every year, as it surpasses the natural capacity for removal.

10

warmest years on historical record have occurred since 2010

>2°F

is the total increase in the Earth's temperature since 1880

>2x

warming rate since 1981

Understanding the ultimate consequences of current trends

Observations from both satellites and the Earth’s surface are indisputable — the planet has warmed rapidly over the past 44 years. As far back as 1850, data from weather stations all over the globe make clear the Earth’s average temperature has been rising.

In recent days, as the Earth has reached its highest average temperatures in recorded history, warmer than any time in the last 125,000 years. Paleoclimatologists, who study the Earth’s climate history, are confident that the current decade is warmer than any period since before the last ice age, about 125,000 years ago.

The Solution Has Several Parts

What can be done to stop it?

Increase the usage of Hydrogen

Clean hydrogen has 3 main uses: energy storage, load balancing, and as feedstock/fuel. Used in all sectors, including steel, chemical, oil refining & heavy transport. Actions to accelerate decarbonization & increase clean hydrogen use include:

  • Invest in clean hydrogen supply;
  • Increase hydrogen demand as fuel/feedstock;
  • Use hydrogen for clean high-temperature heat;
  • Use hydrogen as low-carbon feedstock for ammonia/fertilizer;
  • Use hydrogen as clean fuel for heavy transport;
  • Create policies incentivizing electric power decarbonization;
  • Utilize hydrogen as a means for storing energy over extended periods;
  • Improve electrolyser technology & readiness in heavy industry/liquid transport fuels;
  • Increase use of Methane Pyrolysis & Water Electrolysis for clean hydrogen production;
  • Increase use of wind and solar in electricity production systems.

Increase the usage of Electricity

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving carbon neutrality requires widespread renewable energy and a huge increase in vehicles, products, and processes powered by electricity.

Electricity generated from increasingly renewable energy sources is the right way to create a clean energy system. Switching from direct use of fossil fuels to electricity improves air quality by reducing emissions of local pollutants.In order to increase the use of electricity, we can do the following:

  • Use more electric cars. Compared to traditional combustion engine vehicles, electric cars show a 3-5 times increase in energy efficiency;
  • Increase your electricity consumption within your household;
  • Upgrade your home with smart technology. Electrical appliances can be digitized with smart technology;
  • Use electric heat pump heating. Heat pumps use 4 times less energy than oil or gas boilers;
  • Electrify industrial processes in order to reduce energy intensity.

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What is hydrogen?

icon

Lightest and most abundant

As the foremost element in the periodic table, hydrogen holds a unique position in the universe, given its status as the lightest and one of the most ancient and abundant chemical elements.

icon

Never alone

Hydrogen, in its pure form, needs to be extracted since it is usually present in more intricate molecules, such as water or hydrocarbons, on Earth.

icon

Fuel of stars

Hydrogen powers stars through nuclear fusion. This creates energy and all the other chemicals elements which are found on Earth.

Biggest Human Usages

Ammonia Production

Hydrogen is an essential part for manufacturing Ammoniam Nitrate fertilizers. Half of the world's food is grown using hydrogen-based ammonia fertilizer.

Methanol Production

Hydrogen is used in the production of methanol, where hydrogen is reacted with carbon monoxide to produce chemical feedstocks.

Electricity generation

Hydrogen fuel cells make electricity from combining hydrogen and oxygen. Power plants are showing increased interest in using hydrogen, and gas turbines can convert from natural gas to hydrogen combustion.

Vehicles fuel

Hydrogen is an alternative vehicle fuel. It allows us to power fuel cells in zero-emission electric drive vehicles.

Concrete Production

Hydrogen heat is used in order to reduce emissions in the manufacturing process.

Steelmaking

Steelmaking is an industry that is beginning to successfully use hydrogen in two ways to eliminate almost all greenhouse emissions from the steelmaking process.  First for Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) replacing coke (from coal) with hydrogen to remove oxygen from iron ore. Second for heat to melt the iron ore into DRI and then into low carbon steel.

Space exploration

Liquid hydrogen has been used by NASA as a rocket fuel since the 1950s.

Chemical Industry

Hydrogen is used in production of explosives, fertilizers, and other chemicals; to convert heavier hydrocarbons to lightweight hydrocarbons to produce many value-added chemicals; to hydrogenate organic compounds; and to remove impurities like sulfur, halides, oxygen, metals, and/or nitrogen. It's also in household cleaners like ammonium hydroxide.

Pharmaceutical Industry

Hydrogen is used to make vitamins and other pharmaceutical products.

Glass and Ceramics

In the production of float glass, hydrogen is needed to provide heat and to prevent the large tin bath from oxidizing.

Food and Beverages

It is used to hydrogenate unsaturated fatty acids in animal and vegetable oils, to obtain solid fats for margarine and other food products.

Oil Refining

Using clean hydrogen makes it possible to reduce emissions while "cracking" heavier petroleum into lightweight hydrocarbons to produce many value-added chemicals.

Read More

Goals

The World needs MORE hydrogen, to move toward Turquoise and Green hydrogen, and away from Grey hydrogen

goals diagram

Where We are Now

  • The temperature trend shows the increase can reach 5.9°F (3.28°C) by 2050
  • High CO2 emissions (7-8 kg CO2 /kg H2)
  • Only 2% produced with carbon capture (2Mt)
  • Worldwide 98% Hydrogen production (94 Mt) without carbon capture emits CO2(900 Mt)
  • 62% from methane without carbon capture
  • Fossil Fuel electricity generation pollutes the environment
  • Fossil Fuel provides 33-35% efficiency
diagram

What We Want to Achieve

By 2030

  • 25% Produced(24Mt) with carbon capture
  • Stop more climate change limiting warming to 2.4°F (1.3°C) by 2050
  • Hydrogen for low-carbon industrial heat
  • 100% Hydrogen as a sustainable industrial feedstock

Statistics Source: IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2022

Most Common Hydrogen Sources

These methods now produce 85% of the world's Greenhouse Gas carbon emissions

grey hydrogen method

SMR (Steam Methane Reforming) + WGS (Water Gas Shift)

SMR is a way of producing syngas (Hydrogen and Carbon monoxide) by mixing hydrocarbons (like natural gas) with water. This mixture goes into a special container called a reformer vessel where a high-pressure mixture of steam and methane comes into contact with a nickel catalyst. As a result of the reaction, hydrogen and carbon monoxide are produced.

To make more hydrogen, carbon monoxide from the first reaction is mixed with water through the WGS reaction. As a result, we receive more hydrogen and a gas called carbon dioxide. For each unit of hydrogen produced there are 6 units of carbon dioxide produced and in almost all cases released into the atmosphere.  Carbon dioxide is a harmful gas causing climate change.

$863 ($0.86 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity = $474 + Methane $383 + Water $6 US EIA May 2024*)

SMR + WGS with Carbon Capture

The SMR method involves combining natural gas with high-temperature steam and a catalyst to generate a blend of hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Then, more water is added to the mixture to make more hydrogen and a gas called carbon dioxide.

For each unit of hydrogen produced there are 6 units of carbon dioxide produced. In a few experimental trials, to help the environment, the carbon dioxide is captured and stored underground using a special technology called CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage). This leaves almost pure hydrogen.

One of the main problems with carbon capture and storage is that without careful management of storage, the CO2 can flow from these underground reservoirs into the surrounding air and contribute to climate change, or spoil the nearby water supply. Another is the risk of creating earthquake tremors caused by the storage increasing underground pressure, known as human caused seismicity.

$1,253 ($1.25 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity $474 + Methane $505 + Water $4 US + CCS $270 EIA May 2024*)

blue hydrogen

Newer, Clean Hydrogen Sources

Turquoise Hydrogen

Methane Pyrolysis

This technology based on natural gas emits no greenhouse gases as it does not produce CO2. Methane Pyrolysis refers to a method of generating hydrogen by breaking down methane into its basic components, namely hydrogen and solid carbon.

Oxygen is not involved at all within this process (no CO or CO2 is produced). Thus, for the production of hydrogen gas there is no need for an additional of CO or for CO2 separation.

$1,199 ($1.20 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity $433 +Methane $766 EIA May 2024*)

More About Turquoise Hydrogen
green-method

Electrolysis

The concept of Green Hydrogen involves generating hydrogen from renewable energy sources by means of electrolysis, a process that splits water into its fundamental constituents, hydrogen and oxygen, using an electric current. This process can be powered by a range of renewable energy sources, such as solar energy, wind power, and hydropower.

The electricity used in the electrolysis process is derived exclusively from renewable sources, ensuring a sustainable and environmentally-friendly production of hydrogen. It generates zero carbon dioxide emissions and, as a result, prevents global warming.

$3,289 ($3.29 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity $3,278 + water $11 US EIA May 2024*)

More About Green Hydrogen

Natural Hydrogen

(Emerging New Source)

Natural geologic hydrogen refers to hydrogen gas that is naturally present within the Earth's subsurface.

Known as "White" hydrogen, it can be generated through various geological processes. The study of geologic hydrogen and its potential as an energy resource is an active area of research, as it holds promise for renewable energy applications, particularly in the context of hydrogen fuel cells and clean energy production.

It's important to note that the creation of geologic hydrogen is generally a slow and long-term process, occurring over geological timescales. This is because the other methods are human production technology methods and this is creation by a natural phenomena. The availability and abundance of geologic hydrogen can vary significantly depending on the specific geological setting and the interplay of various factors such as rock composition, temperature, pressure, and the presence of suitable reactants.

Here are some of the main sources and mechanisms of geologic
hydrogen generation:

01

Serpentinization

Serpentinization is a chemical reaction that occurs when water interacts with certain types of rocks, particularly ultramafic rocks rich in minerals such as olivine and pyroxene. This process results in the formation of serpentine minerals and produces hydrogen gas as a byproduct. Serpentinization typically takes place in environments such as hydrothermal systems, oceanic crust, and certain tectonic settings.

02

Radiolysis

In regions with high concentrations of radioactive elements, such as uranium and thorium, the decay of these elements releases radiation. This radiation can interact with surrounding water or other fluids, splitting the water molecules and generating hydrogen gas through a process called radiolysis. This mechanism is believed to contribute to the production of hydrogen in certain deep geological settings, such as deep groundwater systems and radioactive mineral deposits.

03

Geothermal activity

Geothermal systems, which involve the circulation of hot water or steam through fractured rocks, can generate hydrogen gas as a result of various processes. High-temperature hydrothermal systems can cause the thermal decomposition of hydrocarbons, releasing hydrogen gas. Additionally, the interaction between water and hot rocks in geothermal reservoirs can lead to the production of hydrogen through serpentinization or other geochemical reactions.

04

Abiotic methane cracking

Abiotic methane refers to methane gas that is not directly derived from biological sources, such as microbial activity. In certain geological environments, abiotic methane can be generated through processes like thermal decomposition of organic matter or reactions between carbon dioxide and hydrogen. This methane can subsequently undergo thermal or catalytic cracking, producing hydrogen gas.

Success Stories

Steps Taken by Different Countries to Move Forward to Net Zero Emissions

96

£4 billion

100 MW+

1st place

green hydrogen plants are owned by Australia. It possesses the highest count of establishments globally. Australia is expected to have the lowest costs of green hydrogen production by 2050 due to an abundance of solar and wind resources.

was committed by the UK to hydrogen technology and production facilities by 2030 to cultivate a hydrogen economy and create 9,000 jobs.

green hydrogen production sites are being developed by Canadian company First Hydrogen in Quebec and Manitoba. These plans are being developed in conjunction with Canadian and North American automotive strategies.

in the list of largest hydropower producers in the world belongs to China. It is followed by Brazil, USA and Canada.

By 2047

In 2017

200,000

110 countries

green hydrogen will help India make a quantum leap toward energy independence. The country’s National Hydrogen Mission was launched in 2021.

Japan became the first country to formulate a national hydrogen strategy as part of its ambition to become the world's first "hydrogen society" by deploying this fuel in all sectors.

fuel-cell electric vehicles production by 2025 is the goal stated by South Korea. In 2021, South Korea also approved the Hydrogen Power Economic Development and Safety Control Law, the first in the world to promote hydrogen vehicles, charging stations, and fuel cells.

have legally committed to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Conclusion

The World needs MORE hydrogen

SMR + WGS

SMR + WGS

Keep current hydrogen production methods BUT

+

Clean Hydrogen Production Methods

Clean Hydrogen Production Methods

make additional steps to broaden them with cleaner production methods

=

More Hydrogen

more hydrogen

And as a result the world will get more vital hydrogen and become one step closer to net zero emission

Сurrent Situation

The market is dominated by grey hydrogen produced from natural gas through a fossil fuel-powered SMR process. Every year, the production of grey hydrogen amounts to approximately 70 to 80 million tons, and it is primarily used in industrial chemistry. More than 80% is used for the synthesis of ammonia and its derivatives (fertilizer for agriculture, 50 perecent of food worldwide) or for oil refining operations. Unfortunately, for every 1 kg of grey hydrogen, almost 6-8 kg of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere.

More than 95% of the world's hydrogen production is based on fossil fuels with greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, to achieve a more stable future and promote the transition of pure energy, the global goal is to reduce the use of other “colors” of hydrogen and focus on the production of a clean product, such as green or turquoise hydrogen. Reaching the zero carbon footprint will require a gradual transition from grey to green/turquoise hydrogen in the coming years.

It is possible to produce decarbonized hydrogen. An option is to use another feedstock, namely water, and convert it in large electrolyzers into H2 and oxygen (O2), which are returned to the atmosphere. If the electricity used to power the electrolyzers is 100% renewable energy (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, etc.), then hydrogen becomes green. Currently, it is about 0.1% of the total production of hydrogen, but it is expected that it will increase since the cost of renewable energy continues to fall.

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What Does the Data Say about Climate Change?

U.S. Additions to Electric Generating Capacity

U.S. additions to electric generation capacity from 2000 to 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the United States 
is building power plants at a record pace. As indicated on the chart, nearly all new electric generating capacity either already installed or planned 
for 2025 is from clean energy sources, while new power plants coming 
on line 25 years ago, in 2000, were predominantly fueled by natural gas. New wind power plants began to come on line in 2001 and new solar plants, 10 years, later in 2011. Since 2023, the U.S. power industry has built more solar than any other type of power plant. The EIA predicts that clean energy (wind, solar, and battery storage) will deliver 93% of new power-plant capacity in 2025.

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Surface Air Temperature

Global surface air temperature departures between 1940 and 2024 from the average temperature for the period 1991-2020 (averages below the 11-year average are blue and those above are red). The average in October 2024 was +0.80 degrees Celsius above the reference period average, down from +0.85 degrees Celsius above the reference period average in 2023, which was the warmest October on record.

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Geothermal energy gets boost from new coalition of Western governors
May 21, 2026

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah are joining forces to accelerate deployment of clean, around-the-clock geothermal energy in the region.

America’s ambitions to harness geothermal energy just keep getting bigger.

On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of Mountain West governors unveiled an initiative to unlock an estimated 200 gigawatts of clean, always-on energy by tapping into the region’s underground heat. That much power would represent a 50-fold increase in the nation’s current ability to generate geothermal electricity.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah launched the Mountain West Geothermal Consortium a week after the geothermal startup Fervo Energy went public and its valuation rose to over $10 billion. Fervo alone estimates that it has the potential to develop over 42 GW in total geothermal capacity across the nearly 600,000 acres it’s leasing in Western states.

Geothermal energy is gaining traction on both sides of the aisle at a time when data centers, factories, and increasingly electrified cars and buildings are pushing the country’s power grids to the brink.

Yet Fervo and other geothermal firms have many hurdles to clear before they can turn those hypothetical gigawatts into real-world projects. By teaming up, the four states aim to ease some of the financial, permitting, and logistical challenges that stand in the way of widespread geothermal deployment.

“The idea that we can unleash clean, affordable, dispatchable power … that’s kind of the Holy Grail, what we’ve all been chasing. And yet it’s a reality now in ways that it’s never been before,” Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, a Republican, said during the Wednesday news conference.

Utah in particular has become a hot spot for developing the next generation of geothermal technologies, which promise to sidestep the limitations of conventional systems. Existing geothermal plants rely on naturally occurring reservoirs of hot water and steam to spin turbines that produce electricity. But new drilling techniques and tools are enabling companies to access heat in more places, and at greater depths, than was previously possible.

The federally backed Utah Forge project in Beaver County helped develop and test ​“enhanced geothermal systems,” which use horizontal drilling and fracking to create artificial reservoirs underground. Now, Fervo is commercializing the technology at a nearby site. The first phase of Fervo’s 500-megawatt Cape Station project will start sending power to the grid this fall.

“The Mountain West region has an opportunity to lead the world,” Cox said.

Utah is currently home to four conventional geothermal power plants totaling 88 MW in capacity. New Mexico has a single, 14-MW facility, while Arizona and Colorado don’t have any.

The new consortium is led by the Center for Public Enterprise, a New York–based think tank, and the nonprofit organization Constructive, with geothermal companies, investors, and potential customers serving as advisers to the states. The effort was inspired by CPE’s April 2025 report calling on policymakers to ​“deliberately build the legal, financial, and market infrastructures” to accelerate enhanced geothermal projects.

As part of the effort, the four participating states will work to coordinate their permitting processes to speed up approvals and have agreed to share data needed to find and build new geothermal plants. They will also work to improve regional grid interconnections for the projects and to create financing mechanisms that encourage both public and private investment.

Among the biggest barriers to scaling geothermal is what CPE has called ​“a vicious cycle” in project financing.

In order to get money to build projects, developers must first spend millions of dollars to drill exploration and test wells to prove their systems can produce sufficient amounts of energy over time, while also showing they can bring down drilling costs. ​“However, providing this evidence requires additional drilling and larger operational datasets, which require capital the sector does not possess,” CPE said in a separate 2025 report.

To break that bottleneck, states could work with the federal government to replicate projects like the Utah Forge site across the region and take on much of that risky, expensive early work, according to CPE. They could also provide short-term public loans and create prepayment structures that help boost the cash flow and creditworthiness of projects to attract private investors.

At this week’s launch event, Ben Serrurier, Fervo’s director of government affairs and policy, said his firm is excited to work with the states ​“on the financing solutions that can have us be drilling more wells in new places, bringing down costs faster … and finding where we can do projects we never thought projects were possible.”

Cox said a key goal of the Mountain West consortium will be to bring ​“some heft” to Washington, D.C., to advocate for federal funding and policies that support a geothermal expansion. Over 90% of identified U.S. geothermal resources are on federally managed lands, and federal permitting processes can be slow and cumbersome — though recent reforms by the Bureau of Land Management and bipartisan bills in Congress all aim to streamline permitting for geothermal projects.

“If it’s just one state going it alone, that’s great, but you don’t get the attention, the capital, the investment that you need,” Cox said.

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, agreed. ​“The more that we can work to harmonize and de-risk investments in geothermal … we can really support geothermal nationally,” he said.

24/7 renewables could happen sooner than you think
May 21, 2026

Grouping wind, solar, and batteries together can already be more affordable than building a coal or gas plant in prime locations, new report finds.

One of the biggest knocks against renewables — their intermittency — could soon be defanged.

Many rows of solar panels on a flat, grassy plot, flanked by wind turbines on rolling hills
The National Scenic Storage and Transportation Demonstration Base in Dahe Town, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei province, China, on June 9, 2024 (Costfoto/NurPhoto via AP)

As technology prices fall and industry prowess compounds, a new type of clean megaproject is starting to look not only possible but also economically attractive. These projects would load up the sunniest and windiest places on Earth with enough solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries to deliver ​“firm power” 24 hours a day.

Such firm renewable projects could already compete with the cost of building a new coal- or gas-fired power plant in many regions, according to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency. It may sound fanciful to American ears, but projects resembling what IRENA describes are already getting built elsewhere in the world.

Wind and solar have for years competed extremely well on the basic cost per unit of generation, often calculated as the levelized cost of energy; they can generate electricity cheaper than anything that must burn fuel. Last year, onshore wind and fixed-axis solar tied for the lowest levelized cost, at around $40 per megawatt-hour globally, per BloombergNEF, compared with $100 per megawatt-hour for new combined-cycle gas plants.

But that energy cost metric doesn’t tell the full story, because solar and wind famously can’t generate electricity all the time. Utilities and grid operators have to pay extra for firm energy that can fill the gaps between renewable production and demand — and usually that comes from fossil-fueled power plants.

This dynamic has limited the transformational potential of cheap renewables so far. California, for example, floods the wires with cheap solar at noon, but even with its massive fleet of lithium-ion batteries, it still needs gas power plants to keep the system running through the night.

Breakthrough technologies could someday solve the problem of cost-effective, around-the-clock clean power. While enhanced geothermal is making progress, batteries that run for days on end and nuclear fusion are further off. But in the meantime, lithium-ion batteries, which tend to run for just four or five hours at a time, continue to get cheaper and better — making it conceivable to firm up renewables by overbuilding them alongside stacks of conventional energy storage.

IRENA’s report, then, asks how far you can push the clean energy technologies that are available right now.

To answer that, the analysts tapped their database of global renewable project costs and geographical profiles of solar and wind resources ​“to assess what it actually costs to deliver firm, round-the-clock electricity from a hybrid renewable system at a given site, under realistic technology and financing assumptions.”

The results IRENA found are startling: ​“In high-quality resource regions, firm renewable electricity has crossed the threshold of cost competitiveness with new fossil fuel generation,” the authors write. ​“The central question is no longer whether firm renewables can compete on cost, but how quickly the structural conditions needed to realise their potential can be put in place across the diversity of markets and institutional contexts prevailing globally.”

China sets the bar with its shockingly low cost of firm renewables today.

IRENA looked at 252 solar projects that went online there in 2024 and found that many of them could be augmented with extra solar capacity and batteries to deliver power cheaper than the $100-per-megawatt-hour benchmark for new gas-fired plants. Almost all the modeled solar-battery plants could beat that cost for firm clean power 90% of the time; even at the higher reliability threshold of 99%, nearly half the projects remained competitive, and the lowest cost was $46 per megawatt-hour.

Bay Area looks to exempt some households from gas water-heater phaseout
May 20, 2026

The region is finalizing its first-in-the-nation rule to limit the sale of polluting gas water heaters, which will take effect next year.

In 2023, the San Francisco Bay Area’s air district passed first-in-the-nation rules setting zero-emissions limits on home heating systems and water heaters. Now, the agency is working to address affordability concerns ahead of the water-heater rule’s finalization this year — and defuse calls from some regulators to scrap the policy altogether.

In their current form, the regulations would effectively prohibit the sale of gas appliances, beginning with water heaters in 2027 and then furnaces in 2029. Gas appliances spew noxious compounds, including nitrogen oxides (NOx) that contribute to the region’s smog. Pollution from furnaces and water heaters leads to as many as 85 early deaths in the community each year, the air district estimates. Those deaths, combined with illnesses and hospital visits, take a financial toll of up to $890 million annually.

But clean alternatives — zero-emissions heat pumps and heat-pump water heaters — are typically more expensive up front, even if they can save thousands of dollars on energy bills over time. From the beginning, Bay Area regulators, the majority of whom are elected city and county officials, vowed to institute the groundbreaking requirements with care.

The air district is now hammering out the details for implementing the water-heater rule, including a plan to offer one-time exemptions to low-income households and those with space and electrical constraints. Staff members, who are separate from the voting board and developed the proposal, estimate that the exemptions could apply to 38% of water-heater installations. They’ve also proposed delaying implementation by nine months, from January 2027 to October 2027, to set up the exemption system.

Several members of the agency’s board are seeking more drastic changes.

Eight of the 18 board directors in attendance at the body’s May 13 meeting expressed a desire to further delay the policy’s implementation date — or roll it back and make adoption of electric equipment voluntary instead. The board has a total of 24 directors.

“I just think it’s the wrong time to do this. … What’s the top-of-mind issue right now? It’s affordability,” said Alameda County Supervisor David Haubert, a board member in favor of loosening the rules. ​“It’s affordability of food, it’s affordability of electricity, it’s affordability of gas.”

Bay Area regulators have tightened NOx-emissions standards for water and space heaters for over 30 years. The municipalities of Berkeley, Emeryville, Los Altos Hills, Oakland, and San Francisco have passed local resolutions in favor of the latest appliance rules.

A majority of the board voiced their continued support for the water-heater standard, given gas-fired equipment’s insidious threats to public health.

“When we talk about affordability, let’s talk about the affordability of asthma,” said chair Lynda Hopkins, supervisor of Sonoma County, who supports the standards with the exemptions.

“Let’s talk about the affordability of premature death and heart disease, missed work, missed sports practices, missed school … [which also has] social and emotional costs,” she noted. ​“We have communities who are essentially living with generational trauma because they experience disproportionate health impacts.”

The board is expected to vote on the finalized rule language this October.

Its decision could inform state-level regulations taking shape in California and Maryland. Both are actively considering clean-heater rules, while eight other states have committed to exploring zero-emissions standards in the future: Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Washington. Last year, after a flood of opposition speculated to be fake, Southern California’s air district decided to hold off on adopting similar zero-emissions appliance rules of its own.

“The Bay Area will set an example for other air districts,” said Joseph Wachunas, senior project manager at decarbonization nonprofit New Buildings Institute.

A heat map image showing reds and purples around San Francisco, indicating high NO2 pollution.
The San Francisco Bay Area is a hot spot for noxious nitrogen dioxide. Gas water heaters and furnaces are a major source of this air pollutant. Satellite data is from the morning of Nov. 3, 2023. (TEMPO-Lite)

According to the district’s analysis, heat-pump water heater installation costs $7,000 on average, or twice as much as putting in gas equipment. Local and state incentives are available to help close the $3,500 gap — or, in some cases, install zero-emissions water heaters for free.

For a substantial minority of households, switching to a heat-pump water heater could still be cost-prohibitive for myriad reasons. These appliances are typically larger than gas options and may not fit in tight spaces. Because heat-pump devices harvest thermal energy from the air, they typically need at least 700 cubic feet, which not all properties are ready to accommodate. And while evidence suggests that most households can electrify on 100 amps, a fraction might need an electrical service upgrade that could add $2,000 to $30,000 to the installation cost.

When these circumstances make heat-pump water heaters unaffordable, the air district’s staff members have proposed making exceptions.

“If you have to move a wall, you’re going to be able to get that exemption. If you have to upgrade your panel, you’re going to get that exemption,” said Greg Nudd, deputy executive officer of policy at the district. After installing a gas water heater, ​“you would have the lifetime of that piece of equipment to address those problems.”

The tech is also becoming more accessible. ​“When we started this process several years ago, there were no 120-volt heat-pump water heaters,” said board director John Gioia, supervisor of Contra Costa County. ​“There are now two on the market” that plug into standard outlets.

Clean air advocates called the exemption approach reasonable.

“The Bay Area Air District has done a good job at addressing the real-world concerns that people have brought up,” said Tony Sirna, deputy policy director for buildings at climate advocacy group Evergreen Action. ​“We want to reduce pollution, but we know that that’s not going to be successful if the rule doesn’t work for the people of the Bay Area.”

More than 60% of homes in the region will still be required to adhere to the standard, ​“which will drastically reduce pollution and put us on track to transitioning to clean air and clean energy,” Sirna said.

Even though some regulators would suspend the appliance rules outright, Sirna said he’s confident that the majority will carry the water-heater standard across the finish line this fall. ​“The flexibility exemptions that are being proposed,” he noted, ​“really address all the concerns that were being raised.”

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